Expected Games for National Draft Pick 4

Expected Games (XG) Calculation:

We look at the history of all players taken at or around pick 4.
If you were to pick randomly from this group, you'd get something around the median of their future games (123.5).
We take that as the Expected Games (XG) of a player in this group.

Compare with XG for Other Picks
Year Number Player Future Games
1999 4 Matthew Pavlich 353
2005 5 Scott Pendlebury 334
2002 5 Jarrad McVeigh 325
2004 5 Lance Franklin 318
2006 5 Travis Boak 306
1997 5 Luke Power 302
1994 3 Shannon Grant 301
2001 3 Chris Judd 279
2005 4 Josh Kennedy 278
1994 4 Scott Lucas 270
2004 3 Ryan Griffen 257
1999 5 Leigh Brown 246
1997 3 Trent Croad 222
1994 5 Joel Smith 221
2008 3 Stephen Hill 218
2000 3 Alan Didak 218
2007 3 Chris Masten 215
2003 4 Farren Ray 209
2008 5 Michael Hurley 193
2008 4 Hamish Hartlett 193
1993 3 Justin Murphy 185
2002 3 Jared Brennan 173
1998 3 Nic Fosdike 164
2003 3 Colin Sylvia 163
2003 5 Brock McLean 157
1997 6 James Walker 151
2006 3 Lachlan Hansen 151
1999 3 Aaron Fiora 140
2006 4 Matthew Leuenberger 137
1993 5 Adam Heuskes 125
2004 4 Richard Tambling 124
1997 4 Mark Bolton 124
Median 123.5
2007 6 David Myers 123
2002 6 Steven Salopek 121
2005 3 Xavier Ellis 120
2008 6 Chris Yarran 119
2003 6 Kepler Bradley 117
2001 4 Graham Polak 111
2001 5 Xavier Clarke 106
2007 5 Jarrad Grant 95
1996 3 Rory Hilton 91
2004 6 Tom Williams 85
2001 6 Ashley Sampi 78
2007 4 Cale Morton 76
1995 3 Brendon Fewster 70
1995 5 Brendan Krummel 64
1998 5 Michael Stevens 61
1995 4 Scott Bamford 59
1999 6 Damian Cupido 53
2000 4 Luke Livingston 46
2000 5 Andrew McDougall 43
1995 6 Daniel Healy 38
1993 6 Trent Cummings 29
1996 6 John Rombotis 22
2000 6 Dylan Smith 21
1998 4 Ryan Fitzgerald 18
2005 6 Beau Dowler 16
1996 5 Daniel McAlister 6
1996 4 Mark Kinnear 6
1998 6 Murray Vance 5
1994 6 Robert McMahon 2
2006 6 Mitch Thorp 2
1993 4 Glenn Gorman 2
2002 4 Tim Walsh 1